The Jimmy Johnson draft value chart
The draft pick value curve assigns a point value to each selection in a sports draft so that picks can be compared and traded on an apparent common scale. The best-known version in the NFL is the chart popularized by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s, which gave the first overall pick a value of 3,000 points and declined steeply from there.
The curve is convex and very top-heavy: the value drops fast across the early picks and flattens out into the later rounds, so an early first-round pick can be worth roughly ten times a pick near the middle of the draft.
Why the curve matters and its critics
Teams use the chart to evaluate trades, totaling the point values on each side to judge whether a deal is balanced. It made trade negotiations faster and more transparent across the league.
Analysts have argued the classic chart overvalues the very top picks relative to their actual on-field production. Alternative curves, such as those derived from career performance metrics, are flatter at the top, suggesting that accumulating several mid-round picks can be more efficient than trading up for one premium selection.