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Draft Pick Value Curve

Pick #1 is worth roughly 10x pick #50. The Jimmy Johnson chart visualized.

A free, animated draft pick value curve you can read here or embed on any website, from Scrollchart.

Draft Pick Value Curve

Draft Pick Value CurveIndexed career value by pick number: Pick 1 = 3000, asymptotes near zero by Round 4120406080100120140165Draft pick number050010001500200025003000Trade chart value (indexed)

Exponential-decay curve of draft pick trade value (indexed: Pick 1 = 3000) from selection 1 through 165, fitted to historical career Approximate Value (AV) data. Pick 1 sits at 3000 points; Pick 10 at roughly 1300; Pick 32 at 500; Pick 65 at 200; Pick 100 at 100. The curve flattens asymptotically in Rounds 4-7, confirming near-equivalence of late picks. A double-ended annotation flags the approx 10x value gap between Pick 1 and Pick 50. Round-boundary shading (R1 through R5+) makes the round structure visible. A right-side panel translates the curve into practitioner trade rules of thumb.

Good for

  • Draft analysis articles evaluating trade packages for quarterback acquisitions
  • Trade evaluation explainers showing why top-10 picks command such large packages in return
  • Fantasy dynasty league guides for understanding long-term roster construction via rookie picks

Source & accuracy

This draft pick value curve is an editorial illustration built to represent the concept accurately. Where it shows figures, they are typical or representative values chosen to make the relationship clear, not a single underlying dataset. The diagram and its explainer are reviewed and maintained centrally, and updated over time as understanding improves.

The Jimmy Johnson draft value chart

The draft pick value curve assigns a point value to each selection in a sports draft so that picks can be compared and traded on an apparent common scale. The best-known version in the NFL is the chart popularized by Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s, which gave the first overall pick a value of 3,000 points and declined steeply from there.

The curve is convex and very top-heavy: the value drops fast across the early picks and flattens out into the later rounds, so an early first-round pick can be worth roughly ten times a pick near the middle of the draft.

Why the curve matters and its critics

Teams use the chart to evaluate trades, totaling the point values on each side to judge whether a deal is balanced. It made trade negotiations faster and more transparent across the league.

Analysts have argued the classic chart overvalues the very top picks relative to their actual on-field production. Alternative curves, such as those derived from career performance metrics, are flatter at the top, suggesting that accumulating several mid-round picks can be more efficient than trading up for one premium selection.

Embed this diagram

Add this animated draft pick value curve to your own site. Copy one line of HTML, or use the embed builder for theme and sizing options.

Reference

What this is
A free, embeddable, animated draft pick value curve for any website.
Who uses it
Sports blogs.
How to embed
Copy one line of HTML. No signup. No watermark. Works in WordPress, Webflow, Ghost, Substack, plain HTML.
File size
iframe embed, ~80 KB gzipped (loads on demand, does not block your page paint).
License
Free forever. Editorial explainer text included; updated centrally over time.

Embed format options

Copy the universal HTML snippet, the WordPress shortcode, or an iframe fallback - see the WordPress plugin page for details. Any format keeps the same Core Web Vitals profile and the same explainer text.

Embed snippet
<div data-scrollchart="draft-value-curve" data-scrollchart-v="1"></div>
<script src="https://scrollchart.com/embed.js" async></script>

Frequently asked questions

Where can I get a free animated "Draft Pick Value Curve" for my website?
Scrollchart provides "Draft Pick Value Curve" as a free, embeddable animated diagram you can add to any website with one line of HTML. No signup is required and there is no watermark. The diagram and its explainer text are served from scrollchart.com, so the embed stays current without any maintenance on your end.
How do I embed a draft pick value curve in WordPress or a static site?
Paste the HTML snippet from the Scrollchart diagram page into your WordPress post (in HTML/code view), your Webflow embed block, or directly into a static HTML file. No plugin is needed. The diagram loads from scrollchart.com and paints in as the reader scrolls.