The shape of weekly fantasy scoring
Fantasy football scoring in a given week is not symmetric. A small number of elite performers post very high totals, often 30 or more points, while typical startable players cluster in a middle band, and a long tail of low scores fills out the rest. Plotted as a distribution, the result is right-skewed, with a hump of average outcomes and a thin tail of big games.
Position matters: quarterbacks tend to score in a higher and tighter band than running backs and wide receivers, whose week-to-week outcomes are more volatile and boom-or-bust.
Why variance shapes strategy
Because each player's weekly score is itself a distribution rather than a fixed number, managers think in terms of floor (a likely low outcome) and ceiling (the high end). A player with a high floor is steady; one with a high ceiling offers tournament upside but more risk.
Season-long projections capture the average, but matchup choices and daily fantasy lineups hinge on understanding the spread around that average. Recognizing the skew explains why a few outlier performances can decide a matchup.