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Finance Rich #four-percent-rule#safe-withdrawal

The 4% Rule

Withdraw 4% of portfolio in year 1, adjust for inflation thereafter. Survives 30 years in 95% of historical periods.

A free, animated 4% rule you can read here or embed on any website, from Scrollchart.

The 4% Rule

The 4% Rule: 30-Year Retirement Scenarios$0$500k$1M$1.5M$2MYr 0Yr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr 20Yr 25Yr 30$1M startPortfolio ValueSuccess (good sequence)BorderlineFailure (bad sequence)

Multiple historical retirement scenarios using a 4% initial withdrawal adjusted for inflation. Most paths survive 30 years; the few failures (1929, 1966 starts) are highlighted. The Trinity study results inform the 95% survival rate annotation.

Good for

  • FIRE math articles
  • Retirement planning education
  • Safe-withdrawal-rate primers

Source & accuracy

This 4% rule is an editorial illustration built to represent the concept accurately. Where it shows figures, they are typical or representative values chosen to make the relationship clear, not a single underlying dataset. The diagram and its explainer are reviewed and maintained centrally, and updated over time as understanding improves.

Historical success rate and rule origin

The 4% rule is a withdrawal strategy derived from 1998 research on historical market returns by William Bengen. It recommends withdrawing 4% of the portfolio's initial value in year one, then adjusting that dollar amount upward for inflation in subsequent years. On a $1 million portfolio, this means $40,000 in year one, $40,400+ in year two if inflation occurred.

Historically, this approach sustained 30-year retirements in approximately 95% of historical market scenarios from 1900 to 1995, making it a conservative and widely-adopted benchmark.

Limitations and modern context

The rule assumes a 30-year horizon and equal portfolio withdrawal needs each year, which doesn't fit retirees with flexible spending or those who live beyond 30 years. Lower current valuations and interest rates in recent years have reduced its expected success rate in forward projections.

Many financial planners treat 4% as a starting point rather than a fixed rule, adjusting based on portfolio composition, life expectancy, and spending flexibility. Some use 3.5% or lower for added margin of safety, especially those planning for 40+ year retirements.

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Reference

What this is
A free, embeddable, animated 4% rule for any website.
Who uses it
Personal-finance blogs, Investing newsletters, Fintech content sites.
How to embed
Copy one line of HTML. No signup. No watermark. Works in WordPress, Webflow, Ghost, Substack, plain HTML.
File size
iframe embed, ~80 KB gzipped (loads on demand, does not block your page paint).
License
Free forever. Editorial explainer text included; updated centrally over time.
URL
scrollchart.com/diagram/four-percent-rule

Embed format options

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Frequently asked questions

Where can I get a free animated "The 4% Rule" for my website?
Scrollchart provides "The 4% Rule" as a free, embeddable animated diagram you can add to any website with one line of HTML. No signup is required and there is no watermark. The diagram and its explainer text are served from scrollchart.com, so the embed stays current without any maintenance on your end.
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Copy the embed snippet from the Scrollchart page for this diagram and paste it anywhere in your article HTML. It is compatible with WordPress, Webflow, Ghost, Substack, and static HTML pages. No account or API key is needed.
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