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Research Medium #p-hacking#pre-registration#replication-crisis

P-Hacking vs Pre-Registration

Bar chart of 20 p-values from same data (2 spurious hits), vs pre-reg step flow locking the analysis plan.

A free, animated p-hacking vs pre-registration you can read here or embed on any website, from Scrollchart.

P-Hacking vs Pre-Registration

P-Hacking vs Pre-Registration20 analyses on the same dataset: chance finds 1-2 "significant" resultsP-Hacking (same data, 20 tests)p=0.05p-value0123*4567891011*121314151617181920Pre-Registration SolutionDefine hypothesisBefore data collectionPre-register analysis planLock on OSF, ClinicalTrials.govCollect dataAs planned1 pre-specified testp < 0.05 = 5% false positive rate

Left: 20 bar chart showing p-values for 20 tests on the same null dataset. Two bars dip below p=0.05 line (red). Footer: family-wise error rate = 64% after 20 tests. Right: four step boxes (define hypothesis, pre-register, collect data, 1 pre-specified test) for correct procedure.

Good for

  • Open science advocacy
  • Replication crisis explainers
  • Research methods courses

Source & accuracy

This p-hacking vs pre-registration is an editorial illustration built to represent the concept accurately. Where it shows figures, they are typical or representative values chosen to make the relationship clear, not a single underlying dataset. The diagram and its explainer are reviewed and maintained centrally, and updated over time as understanding improves.

Flexibility in analysis inflates false positives

P-hacking (or researcher degrees of freedom) occurs when you test many hypotheses, exclude participants after seeing results, adjust thresholds, or try multiple statistical approaches on the same dataset. If you run 20 statistical tests on random data, one will appear significant at p < 0.05 by chance alone. Most p-hacking is unconscious: researchers genuinely believe they're pursuing legitimate analyses but didn't pre-commit to stopping rules.

The diagram shows 20 p-values from the same dataset with no real effect. Two surpass 0.05, yet both are false discoveries. Real experiments contain exactly one true hypothesis and one planned test.

Pre-registration locks the analysis plan

Pre-registration means writing down your primary hypothesis, sample size, statistical approach, and stopping rules before data collection begins. This document is time-stamped on a public registry, making post-hoc deviation detectable. Researchers can still explore data, but those exploratory findings are labeled as such and require separate confirmation in new data. Pre-registration does not prevent new discoveries, only prevents false discoveries dressed as confirmatory findings.

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Reference

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A free, embeddable, animated p-hacking vs pre-registration for any website.
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