Why five kicks each creates asymmetry
Penalty shootouts use a best-of-five format for most competitions, meaning each team takes up to five penalties. The team that shoots first has a psychological advantage: if they score five and the opponent misses one, they win before the other team's fifth kick. This first-mover effect historically favors the kicking team by roughly 5-10 percentage points.
After five kicks each, if the score is tied, the shootout enters sudden-death: each team alternates single penalties until one team misses and the other scores. At this point, win probability approaches 50-50, eliminating the initial first-mover advantage entirely.
Pressure accumulation across kick sequences
Early penalties in a shootout carry less psychological weight because both teams are still in contention with multiple attempts remaining. By the fourth and fifth kicks, missing becomes catastrophic: it often ends the shootout immediately or inverts the score. Goalkeeper stress also compounds across kicks; saving penalties requires split-second reads, which degrade under fatigue.
The sudden-death phase represents complete uncertainty. Both shooters are cold, both goalkeepers equally stressed, and a single miss ends everything. This is why sudden-death phases produce the most spectacular moments and why first-mover advantage evaporates once that stage begins.