Whale and shrimp strategies across cycles
Wallet cohort behavior organizes addresses by holdings: shrimp (small holders), fish, dolphins, whales (large holders). Each cohort has distinct behavioral patterns. Shrimp tend to accumulate during bear markets when prices are low and distribute into bull rallies when confidence returns. Whales, holding positions large enough to impact markets, often accumulate during downturns and distribute at peaks. Tracking cohort flows reveals whether different participant tiers are aligned or in conflict.
Alignment and divergence as market signals
When shrimp accumulate and whales distribute simultaneously, divergence signals weak market health. When both cohorts accumulate together, it suggests shared conviction and potential strength. During capitulation, watching whether whales are buying dips reveals confidence. During rallies, whale distribution into strength is a warning signal. Cohort alignment is a crucial on-chain leading indicator because behavior from large holders often precedes retail sentiment.