High-leverage moments shift the win probability most
In baseball, the leverage index measures how much a single play swing's the probability of winning the game. A home run in the ninth inning of a tie game has enormous leverage because it likely decides the outcome. The same home run in the second inning of a 10-run deficit has nearly zero leverage because one swing cannot plausibly alter the final result. Leverage peaks in late innings when the game outcome is still uncertain.
Clutch metrics reward performance in high-leverage situations
A batter who excels in high-leverage moments (runners in scoring position, late innings, close games) has a higher clutch value than someone with identical overall statistics who performs the same in low-pressure situations. Leverage-adjusted metrics weight late-inning heroics more heavily than early-game performance, better capturing the moments that matter. This concept extends beyond baseball to any sport where win probability can be quantified.